How asset classes fare in uncertainty


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1. Cash-based investments

These are interesting times for both seasoned investors and novices alike and cash-based investments (cash deposits and fixed-rate bonds from institutions) are a case in point. Just over a year ago, the message from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Fed was that we should prepare ourselves for a step-by-step return to something resembling normality on the interest rates front. Fast forward to the present, and we appear to be heading in the opposite dir­ection. Negative rates are already in place in the euro zone and can’t be ruled out as a possibility in the UK. At heart, most investors have a simple objective: steady capital growth and dependable, predictable income. There was a time when cash-based investments were valuable, but not any more. The chances of rates climbing to the BoE’s target range of around 3 to 4 per cent in the medium term appear extremely slim. In this climate, even on so-called “high interest” fixed rate bonds from banks, returns are always going to be disappointing where the rates set by individual institutions are linked to national central bank rates. The value of cash investments lies in their sec­urity, which means they can still form a useful part of an investment portfolio.

2. Shares

Shares are medium or long-term investments that involve investing directly in your own hand-picked selection of companies, or having experts make your investment decisions through a fund or investment trust.

Performance tends to fluctuate day-to-day and month-to-month, but historically, if you hang on to them, capital growth tends to outperform cash investments. There’s also the added incentive of a revenue stream through annual payments to shareholders, ie dividends.

If it’s predictability you are looking for, shares can – and frequently do – fall short. Let’s say you are invested in a fund that consists of a range of shares from one of the big indexes such as the FTSE 100 or S&P 500. You are expecting a ballpark amount in dividend payments this year, only to find that a number of the big names that the fund is exposed to – Rio Tinto, Shell and HSBC, for instance – have had to slash their payments this year. Beware of over-reliance on share-based investments if a predictable revenue stream is a priority.

3. Commodities

This is a wide-ranging asset class covering precious metals such as gold and silver, industrials such as oil, gas and copper and “soft” commodities – mostly raw foodstuffs.

Investing in precious metals, notably gold, can be a useful defensive strategy for your portfolio. The capital value of gold tends to increase or stay steady over the long term, and its performance is shielded from what is happening elsewhere on the markets. In short, you can use it as a hedging tool to preserve a portion of your capital from volatile markets.

For an inexperienced investor, direct involvement in the commodities market doesn’t tend to be a natural first port of call. For instance, with futures contracts on oil or copper, rather than taking on physical ownership of the commodity, you are essentially betting on the price either falling or rising. Commodities markets can be volatile and unpredict­able, meaning that futures can give rise to big losses as well as potential gains.

4. Bonds

These are often described as “IOUs” issued by investors. Bonds supplied by the government are referred to as “gilts” while corporate bonds are distributed by large companies. With this method of investing, you are essentially a creditor of the party who issued the bond. They offer you security of capital, unless you are extremely unlucky and the company in question goes bankrupt. They also offer you predictability, especially if you opt for bonds that offer a fixed annual return. But with a fixed income stream and much lower level of risk compared to the stock market comes a lower level of return compared to investment in shares.

5. Property

Investing in property, and gaining an income stream from tenants, is considered to be removed from the volatility that exists elsewhere. The fundamentals that influence capital growth in property is only very loosely related to what is happening on the stock market. With well-chosen property investments, you have the potential to diversify your portfolio thereby reducing your risk profile, at the same time as potentially increasing your returns. Yet success is not guaranteed. Each potential investment must be considered on its own merits, local knowledge is also vital, and a targeted approach is needed.

Richard Bradstock is the director of the international property investment company IP Global

ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA

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Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser

Rating: 4.5/5

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(Sterling 16')

Man of the match: Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)

Stuck in a job without a pay rise? Here's what to do

Chris Greaves, the managing director of Hays Gulf Region, says those without a pay rise for an extended period must start asking questions – both of themselves and their employer.

“First, are they happy with that or do they want more?” he says. “Job-seeking is a time-consuming, frustrating and long-winded affair so are they prepared to put themselves through that rigmarole? Before they consider that, they must ask their employer what is happening.”

Most employees bring up pay rise queries at their annual performance appraisal and find out what the company has in store for them from a career perspective.

Those with no formal appraisal system, Mr Greaves says, should ask HR or their line manager for an assessment.

“You want to find out how they value your contribution and where your job could go,” he says. “You’ve got to be brave enough to ask some questions and if you don’t like the answers then you have to develop a strategy or change jobs if you are prepared to go through the job-seeking process.”

For those that do reach the salary negotiation with their current employer, Mr Greaves says there is no point in asking for less than 5 per cent.

“However, this can only really have any chance of success if you can identify where you add value to the business (preferably you can put a monetary value on it), or you can point to a sustained contribution above the call of duty or to other achievements you think your employer will value.”

 

Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction

Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.

Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.

Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.

Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.

Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.

What are the guidelines?

Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.

Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.

Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.

Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.

Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.

Source: American Paediatric Association
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Defence review at a glance

• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”

• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems

• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.

• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%

• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade

• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels