It has been a scary, foreboding start to the new year, with financial markets recording their worst January trading in living memory, worse even than the dot.com crash in 2000.
Wall Street has seen nothing like it since the Great Depression and the European markets recorded their worst week in years.
Precedents were set all over the place. The price of oil dropped below $35 per barrel after the two mightiest powers in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran, fell out, threatening the stability of the area. Shipping rates sank to new lows, commodity prices fell further and the emerging markets, battered and bleeding from the beating they have taken over the past year, fell again.
The South African rand led the way down, sinking below 16 to the US dollar and 24 to the British pound, about half of its level two years ago. The World Bank warned that if the Brics countries don’t pull themselves together this year, global growth could be jeopardised. “Downside risk predominates”, it concluded portentously.
What does it all mean? A market shake-out, or something much more serious? George Soros, known as the Man who broke the Bank of England because of his raid on sterling in 1992 when he personally made £1 billion (Dh5.35bn), thinks it is the latter.
According to Mr Soros, who has built a fortune of over $30bn by being right, the world is heading into another recession that could be every bit as bad as the one in 2008. Most of us feel we haven’t even clambered out of that recession yet, and quite a few countries definitely haven’t.
In Britain, George Osborne, who has presided over the most successful economy in Europe for the past five years, unexpectedly warned of the “dangerous cocktail” of global risks in the coming year which could wipe out the British recovery so painfully won this far after years of austerity.
Both Mr Soros and Mr Osborne mentioned the combined threats of a slowdown in China, stock market turbulence that could spread to the real economy, the collapsing oil price and the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Any one of these, if it gets out of control, is capable of plunging the world into crisis. But will they? The most pressing last week was China, which saw the panicked reaction by the Beijing authorities to stock market falls trigger more market chaos. New circuit breakers designed to calm markets had exactly the opposite effect. Last week the circuit breakers were on two days, with bizarre results.
Traders knew that if markets fell more than 5 per cent in a session, the mechanism would trigger, so on Thursday they unloaded stock in the hope of getting out while there was still time. The CSI 300 index of blue chip Chinese shares duly fell 5 per cent, and the markets promptly closed for 15 minutes. When they reopened, the sellers piled in again, taking the fall through 7 per cent, at which stage the market closed again.
On that single day, the market was open for a grand total of 890 seconds, the shortest trading day on record since China’s stock markets opened in 1990. Overall, the Chinese markets dropped 10 per cent in a week, and the circuit breaker mechanism was suspended, hopefully never to be used again.
China’s economy, which has been the main engine of growth this past decade, is certainly stuttering, but it is not falling apart. Western economists, including the World Bank, last week revised their forecasts down below 7 per cent, which is well below the levels recorded for the past 25 years. But that is far from a disaster and certainly doesn’t merit the panic of last week. The crash had as much to do with the cack-handed way it was handled as to economic fundamentals. The oil price may turn out to be rather more serious. As one economist said over the weekend, “the oil price is in danger of turning from helpful growth boost to damaging rout, which could set back energy investment for years”.
In Britain’s North Sea, exploration has been cut right back, jobs are being slashed, operators are going bust and there is no relief in sight. In the US, Canada, Nigeria and most other oil-producing countries, new investment has slowed to a trickle.
Whatever the misgivings of Mr Soros, Mr Osborne and others in the gloom camp, the balanced view would suggest the world economy is still in recovery mode rather than re-entering recession.
The World Bank, although it has just cut its forecast for 2016 growth from 3.3 per cent, is still projecting growth of 2.9 per cent this year and 3.1 per cent next year.
On Friday the US announced that an extra 292,000 jobs had been created in December, well above expectations, and that the jobless rate had dropped to 5 per cent, which in effect means full employment. The US is still growing at a robust 2.5 per cent and the biggest indication that it will continue is the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates for the first time since 2008, with more to come this year.
While the biggest economy in the world keeps on growing, there can be no world recession. Mr Soros is wrong this time.
Ivan Fallon is a former business editor of The Sunday Times and the author of Black Horse Ride: The Inside Story of Lloyds and the Financial Crisis.
business@thenational.ae
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Western Region Asia Cup T20 Qualifier
Sun Feb 23 – Thu Feb 27, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the Asia qualifier in Malaysia in August
Group A
Bahrain, Maldives, Oman, Qatar
Group B
UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
UAE group fixtures
Sunday Feb 23, 9.30am, v Iran
Monday Feb 25, 1pm, v Kuwait
Tuesday Feb 26, 9.30am, v Saudi
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza, Rohan Mustafa, Alishan Sharafu, Ansh Tandon, Vriitya Aravind, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Basil Hameed, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Ayaz, Zahoor Khan, Chirag Suri, Sultan Ahmed
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
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Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
more from Janine di Giovanni
OTHER IPL BOWLING RECORDS
Best bowling figures: 6-14 – Sohail Tanvir (for Rajasthan Royals against Chennai Super Kings in 2008)
Best average: 16.36 – Andrew Tye
Best economy rate: 6.53 – Sunil Narine
Best strike-rate: 12.83 – Andrew Tye
Best strike-rate in an innings: 1.50 – Suresh Raina (for Chennai Super Kings against Rajasthan Royals in 2011)
Most runs conceded in an innings: 70 – Basil Thampi (for Sunrisers Hyderabad against Royal Challengers Bangalore in 2018)
Most hat-tricks: 3 – Amit Mishra
Most dot-balls: 1,128 – Harbhajan Singh
Most maiden overs bowled: 14 – Praveen Kumar
Most four-wicket hauls: 6 – Sunil Narine
Day 1, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Sadeera Samarawickrama set pulses racing with his strokeplay on his introduction to Test cricket. It reached a feverish peak when he stepped down the wicket and launched Yasir Shah, who many regard as the world’s leading spinner, back over his head for six. No matter that he was out soon after: it felt as though the future had arrived.
Stat of the day - 5 The last time Sri Lanka played a Test in Dubai – they won here in 2013 – they had four players in their XI who were known as wicketkeepers. This time they have gone one better. Each of Dinesh Chandimal, Kaushal Silva, Samarawickrama, Kusal Mendis, and Niroshan Dickwella – the nominated gloveman here – can keep wicket.
The verdict Sri Lanka want to make history by becoming the first team to beat Pakistan in a full Test series in the UAE. They could not have made a better start, first by winning the toss, then by scoring freely on an easy-paced pitch. The fact Yasir Shah found some turn on Day 1, too, will have interested their own spin bowlers.
Why are you, you?
Why are you, you?
From this question, a new beginning.
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For you are a world, and a meeting of worlds.
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separated by history.
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beyond colour and creed and gender.
The lightning flash of art
And the music of the heart.
We reflect all cultures, all ways.
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Universal ideals, visions of art and truth.
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Why are you, you?
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with the unique light of art.
Ben Okri,
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Greatest Royal Rumble results
John Cena pinned Triple H in a singles match
Cedric Alexander retained the WWE Cruiserweight title against Kalisto
Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt win the Raw Tag Team titles against Cesaro and Sheamus
Jeff Hardy retained the United States title against Jinder Mahal
Bludgeon Brothers retain the SmackDown Tag Team titles against the Usos
Seth Rollins retains the Intercontinental title against The Miz, Finn Balor and Samoa Joe
AJ Styles remains WWE World Heavyweight champion after he and Shinsuke Nakamura are both counted out
The Undertaker beats Rusev in a casket match
Brock Lesnar retains the WWE Universal title against Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
Braun Strowman won the 50-man Royal Rumble by eliminating Big Cass last
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
RESULT
Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')
UAE Rugby finals day
Games being played at The Sevens, Dubai
2pm, UAE Conference final
Dubai Tigers v Al Ain Amblers
4pm, UAE Premiership final
Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
RESULT
Valencia 3
Kevin Gameiro 21', 51'
Ferran Torres 67'
Atlanta 4
Josip Llicic 3' (P), 43' (P), 71', 82'
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
Previous men's records
- 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
- 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
- 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
- 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
- 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
- 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
- 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
- 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
- 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
- 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
FINAL RESULT
Sharjah Wanderers 20 Dubai Tigers 25 (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries: Gormley, Penalty
cons: Flaherty
Pens: Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries: O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons: Caldwell 2
Pens: Caldwell, Cross
MATCH INFO
Karnatake Tuskers 114-1 (10 ovs)
Charles 57, Amla 47
Bangla Tigers 117-5 (8.5 ovs)
Fletcher 40, Moores 28 no, Lamichhane 2-9
Bangla Tiger win by five wickets
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
