An ISIS terror campaign across Europe, Russia and the Middle East is expected to follow the Moscow massacre as “one attack is not enough”, security experts have told The National.
Extremists from ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) who killed 137 people in the Crocus City Hall attack were highly likely to have been acting under orders from the group's central commanders based in the Middle East.
With the likelihood of the attack raising more funds and recruits, the Islamic extremist group will probably launch more assaults to demonstrate that it is no longer a spent force, analysts have said.
Western security agencies are on high alert for more potential attacks, especially in France, Sweden and the Netherlands.
ISIS changes tack
Following the March 22 attack in Russia and the arrests of four Tajik gunmen, attention has been focused on the apparent resurgence of ISIS-K, based in Central Asia.
But terror expert Antonio Giustozzi told The National that the orders for the attack almost certainly came from ISIS commanders currently sheltering in Syria, Iraq or Turkey.
“ISIS-Khorasan had a support role but it was the central leadership which gave the orders to do this,” said the analyst at the Rusi think tank.
“They realised that they are in terminal decline, they have no ‘caliphate’, and an image problem of defeats and losses so they are trying to change the narrative.”
The focus now is on more high-profile attacks that will attract the tens of millions of dollars the group needs to fund its campaign.
“That is why they needed to innovate with a target like Moscow, to show that ‘we are still relevant’ and public enemy number one,” Dr Giustozzi said.
Target Europe
The graphic imagery from the Moscow attack is highly likely to influence young men to join ISIS's ranks and prepare for an attack in Europe, which has not witnessed a major atrocity since the Paris attacks in 2015.
But with anti-immigrant right-wing Islamophobic political parties gaining power in several countries, there are vulnerabilities that ISIS can prey on.
“The problem after a big attack like this succeeds is others get inspired to do it, including lone-wolf types, with a surge in the recruitment space,” a British security official said.
Western intelligence agencies have “raised the ISIS threat one of the biggest concerns out there”, he added, as the group's classic strategy is to “generate interreligious conflict”.
Dr Giustozzi pointed to France and the Netherlands as likely targets because of the “strong tensions between the communities” and “Islamophobic sentiments”.
In November last year, the anti-Muslim PVV party won the most seats in the Dutch Parliament. It leader, Geert Wilders, has previously promised to shutter mosques and ban the publication of the Quran.
A provocative ISIS attack, like striking a church service, “could create the reaction from the hard right like burning a mosque”, said Dr Giustozzi.
“Their aim is surviving via a campaign of terrorist attacks showing that they are not finished and can do things that nobody else can,” added Dr Giustozzi, who is the author of several works on the extremist group.
“To raise the money they need, ISIS require a big project and one attack is not enough.”
Khorasan role
Ever since its defeat in Syria in 2019, ISIS has been forced underground, but Moscow, alongside several less prominent attacks in recent years, demonstrated that it has not disappeared.
The US, in particular, remains focused on destroying its leadership in Syria, Iraq and Turkey. This has forced ISIS to use its affiliates in Khorasan – a historical region that today is largely made up of Afghanistan, Iran and Turkmenistan – to carry out attacks.
“It is more practical to do it from mountains of Afghanistan than from the desert of Syria,” said Dr Giustozzi.
“Khorasan also has a lot of Central Asians, who can handle day-to-day management of cells in Russia, Europe and Asia. It is a large organisation to manage.”
It is understood that there is a tacit agreement between the US and the Taliban that their drones can overfly Afghanistan but cannot bomb, even if they have ISIS-K commanders in their sights.
But they are able to gain valuable “signals intelligence” from ISIS-K, which had been passed on to the Russians before the Moscow attack, and previously to Iran before the bombing in January in which 100 people were killed at a memorial event for Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani.
However, given the distrust between the nations, the warnings were largely ignored.
Russia return
Given ISIS's success in Russia and the antagonism Central Asians feel towards President Vladimir Putin’s regime, analysts predict a rise in attacks there.
This could be stoked by Russia, where 10 per cent of the population is Muslim, rounding up and abusing suspected extremists.
“The consequence is that the Russians overreact or that others get inspired and radicalised,” the British official said.
“ISIS have been trying to do this in Russia for a long time and this one got through.”
The extremist group's propaganda also uses Mr Putin’s war in Chechnya and his strong relationship with Tajikistan’s leader Emomali Rahmon as well as his support for Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad as evidence of Moscow’s anti-Muslim stance.
But there is also a chance of an ISIS resurgence in the Middle East if the Israel-Gaza war spreads.
“ISIS operations have diversified into Africa and now Asia but the Middle East has meaning for them in a way that their other areas don’t,” said a former counter-terrorism analyst.
“They will never give up trying to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Middle East so it is key that the region does not spiral into war again as conflict and chaos is what ISIS thrives on.”
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Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
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2. Peter Morin (FRA) CTIC F1 Shenzhen China Team: 0.91sec
3. Sami Selio (FIN) Mad-Croc Baba Racing Team: 31.43sec
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On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
Scores
Oman 109-3 in 18.4 overs (Aqib Ilyas 45 not out, Aamir Kaleem 27) beat UAE 108-9 in 20 overs (Usman 27, Mustafa 24, Fayyaz 3-16, Bilal 3-23)
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Day 1 fixtures (Saturday)
Men 1.45pm, Malaysia v Australia (Court 1); Singapore v India (Court 2); UAE v New Zealand (Court 3); South Africa v Sri Lanka (Court 4)
Women Noon, New Zealand v South Africa (Court 3); England v UAE (Court 4); 5.15pm, Australia v UAE (Court 3); England v New Zealand (Court 4)
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
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The view from The National
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
The biog
Born: Kuwait in 1986
Family: She is the youngest of seven siblings
Time in the UAE: 10 years
Hobbies: audiobooks and fitness: she works out every day, enjoying kickboxing and basketball
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Favourite book: Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi
Favourite holiday destination: Spain
Favourite film: Bohemian Rhapsody
Favourite place to visit in the UAE: The beach or Satwa
Children: Stepdaughter Tyler 27, daughter Quito 22 and son Dali 19
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Paltan
Producer: JP Films, Zee Studios
Director: JP Dutta
Cast: Jackie Shroff, Sonu Sood, Arjun Rampal, Siddhanth Kapoor, Luv Sinha and Harshvardhan Rane
Rating: 2/5
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Generation Start-up: Awok company profile
Started: 2013
Founder: Ulugbek Yuldashev
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 600 plus
Stage: still in talks with VCs
Principal Investors: self-financed by founder
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
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What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
South Africa v India schedule
Tests: 1st Test Jan 5-9, Cape Town; 2nd Test Jan 13-17, Centurion; 3rd Test Jan 24-28, Johannesburg
ODIs: 1st ODI Feb 1, Durban; 2nd ODI Feb 4, Centurion; 3rd ODI Feb 7, Cape Town; 4th ODI Feb 10, Johannesburg; 5th ODI Feb 13, Port Elizabeth; 6th ODI Feb 16, Centurion
T20Is: 1st T20I Feb 18, Johannesburg; 2nd T20I Feb 21, Centurion; 3rd T20I Feb 24, Cape Town
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The line-up as it stands for the Greatest Royal Rumble in Saudi Arabia on April 27
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship
Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns
Casket match
The Undertaker v Rusev
Intercontinental Championship
Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship
The Bludgeon Brothers v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship
Sheamus and Cesaro v Bray Wyatt and Matt Hardy
United States Championship
Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
Singles match
Triple H v John Cena
To be confirmed
AJ Styles will defend his WWE World Heavyweight title and Cedric Alexander his Cruiserweight Championship, but matches have yet to be announced
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
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