The Israel-Gaza war has brought a second Nakba upon the Palestinian people, but it does not represent a tipping point for the Middle East in the same way that the first Nakba more than seven decades ago did for the wider region.
The ongoing war has displaced 2.3 million Palestinians, which is three times the number of people who were forced to flee their homes in 1948. More than 32,000 people have been killed in Gaza over the past nearly six months, which, according to some estimates, is more than double the casualty count in 1948. And yet the first Nakba was truly transformational in a way that the current tragedy is not.
To be sure, this conflict has its winners and losers – and it has already brought about some notable changes.
Hamas’s reign over Gaza appears to have ended indefinitely. It is very likely that the Israeli people will finally have the perfect alibi to get rid of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the war. And the outpouring of international support for a free Palestine is both refreshing and welcome, although it might not last for long.
But these changes alone are not enough to usher in a new era in the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict. They are not expected to make a huge dent in the stubborn Middle Eastern politics either. Parts of the region will remain unstable, with Israel and Iran being the major sources of instability. In short, don’t expect fundamental change after the dust has settled.
The war has not impeded the wider region’s momentum towards de-escalation
Israeli politics will continue to surge rightwards. Its brutal occupation will harden further with more annexations expected, as a majority of Israelis reject international calls for a two-state solution. The country will remain stubbornly defiant, refusing to learn the hard lessons from Hamas’s October 7 attacks.
The war has failed to bring together the Palestinian polity. One would have assumed that the ongoing disaster in Gaza would bring the leaders of Fatah and Hamas closer to one another. Not a chance. The gap between these two leading groups persists. Their divisions may even have widened and deepened.
The Arab world, meanwhile, has been unable to secure a ceasefire. Israel is largely dismissive of Arab concerns, as it has been systematically for the past seven decades. Surprisingly, the Arab street has remained relatively quiet. While we see weekly protests in solidarity with Palestine in some western capitals, such demonstrations are rare in Arab cities.
Meanwhile, the war proves that Iran intends to remain a regional spoiler. Tehran is exploiting the misery in Gaza to acquire legitimacy and popularity at the expense of moderate Arab states in the region. On balance, it is neither a winner nor a loser as a result of the conflict. Even if Hamas is eventually defeated militarily, Tehran is buoyed by the fact that the Houthis are taking on a superpower like the US in the Red Sea. In other words, the war has not changed Iran’s regional behaviour.
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It is also worth pointing out that the war has not impeded the wider region’s momentum towards de-escalation. Detente remains the focus for a number of countries. The mood for conversation over confrontation prevails. For example, despite their differences over the war itself, Iran and the six Gulf countries are still talking to one another.
Finally, the war has hardly changed the US’s commitment to Israeli security. Occasional differences over policy choices are not new. Additionally, Middle East centrality to American politics has been reaffirmed.
Washington is seen to be engaging with the region, with one notable change being the Biden administration’s interest in creating a “Saudi-centred Middle East” in return for Riyadh establishing ties with Israel. This is happening even as anti-American sentiment is on the rise throughout the region as an outcome of the US’s support for Israel in the war. Washington is no stranger to anti-American sentiments, they fluctuate quickly.
None of this is to say that the Gaza war is not tragic on a massive scale, but it is hardly transformational. It will not bring about a sea change in the Middle East’s geopolitical status quo. It will certainly go down in history as a conflict that the International Court of Justice characterised as a “plausible” genocide, and which – tellingly – the world didn’t do enough to end. This, then, means that – unfortunately – it is likely to be forgotten beyond the region within a few short years.
Lowest Test scores
26 - New Zealand v England at Auckland, March 1955
30 - South Africa v England at Port Elizabeth, Feb 1896
30 - South Africa v England at Birmingham, June 1924
35 - South Africa v England at Cape Town, April 1899
36 - South Africa v Australia at Melbourne, Feb. 1932
36 - Australia v England at Birmingham, May 1902
36 - India v Australia at Adelaide, Dec. 2020
38 - Ireland v England at Lord's, July 2019
42 - New Zealand v Australia in Wellington, March 1946
42 - Australia v England in Sydney, Feb. 1888
Top 10 most polluted cities
- Bhiwadi, India
- Ghaziabad, India
- Hotan, China
- Delhi, India
- Jaunpur, India
- Faisalabad, Pakistan
- Noida, India
- Bahawalpur, Pakistan
- Peshawar, Pakistan
- Bagpat, India
Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner: Maqam, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
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3.15pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m
Winner: Jaahiz, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m
Winner: Qanoon, Szczepan Mazur, Irfan Ellahi.
4.15pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Cup Handicap (TB) Dh200,000 1,700m.
Winner: Philosopher, Tadhg O’Shea, Salem bin Ghadayer.
54.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m
Winner: Jap Al Yassoob, Fernando Jara, Irfan Ellahi.
The five pillars of Islam
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Teaching your child to save
Pre-school (three - five years)
You can’t yet talk about investing or borrowing, but introduce a “classic” money bank and start putting gifts and allowances away. When the child wants a specific toy, have them save for it and help them track their progress.
Early childhood (six - eight years)
Replace the money bank with three jars labelled ‘saving’, ‘spending’ and ‘sharing’. Have the child divide their allowance into the three jars each week and explain their choices in splitting their pocket money. A guide could be 25 per cent saving, 50 per cent spending, 25 per cent for charity and gift-giving.
Middle childhood (nine - 11 years)
Open a bank savings account and help your child establish a budget and set a savings goal. Introduce the notion of ‘paying yourself first’ by putting away savings as soon as your allowance is paid.
Young teens (12 - 14 years)
Change your child’s allowance from weekly to monthly and help them pinpoint long-range goals such as a trip, so they can start longer-term saving and find new ways to increase their saving.
Teenage (15 - 18 years)
Discuss mutual expectations about university costs and identify what they can help fund and set goals. Don’t pay for everything, so they can experience the pride of contributing.
Young adulthood (19 - 22 years)
Discuss post-graduation plans and future life goals, quantify expenses such as first apartment, work wardrobe, holidays and help them continue to save towards these goals.
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Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Britain's travel restrictions
- A negative test 2 days before flying
- Complete passenger locator form
- Book a post-arrival PCR test
- Double-vaccinated must self-isolate
- 11 countries on red list quarantine
The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini
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Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The specs
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Torque: 685Nm at 2,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Price: from Dh850,000
On sale: now
