First quarter rocky but positive

Although the first quarter was volatile, it proved to be a relatively successful one for risk assets as monetary policy in the developed world remained accommodative, economic recovery began to gain some momentum in Europe and inflation seemed a distant prospect.

There were also some unexpected outperformers in emerging markets. Early on in the quarter, fears that reductions in the US Federal Reserve’s monthly asset purchases would lead to capital flights, along with disappointing data from a number of countries, pressured emerging-market bonds and currencies. But the picture subsequently brightened, and as inflows into the asset class improved in March, Indian and Indonesian risk assets posted strong gains – although risk assets in other markets such as China, Russia and Brazil declined. Late in the quarter, worries about decelerating growth in China and debt at various levels of the Chinese economy gave way to the belief that the Chinese authorities were preparing renewed stimulus measures.

All in all, emerging-market debt benefitted from the decline in rates and a narrowing in spreads by 23 basis points during the first quarter, as measured by the CDX Emerging Markets Index, helping the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global Diversified post a return of 3.73 per cent.

A favourable quarter for Dubai culminated in the signing of an agreement with Abu Dhabi and the Central Bank to roll over US$20 billion of debt for another five years at an interest rate of 1 per cent. Strong, renewed interest in real estate IPOs was a further sign of the buoyancy of the Dubai market.

There was also a noticeable rise in confidence among investors that, after many years of political wrangling, Kuwait was finally closer to getting state spending plans on track. With the Saudi Arabian central bank projecting that economic growth in the kingdom will reach 4.4 per cent this year, sentiment towards that market also remained positive.

Qatar’s economy also steamed ahead, with the authorities announcing the largest-ever spending budget for the fiscal year 2014-2015. Finally, in Egypt, the approval of a new constitution by referendum in January, together with planned parliamentary and presidential elections and a detailed roadmap of economic reforms, helped put the country on a more even keel.

Risk markets were tough to navigate in the first quarter, as weather-related distortions to economic data complicated assessments of the recovery in the United States. After a rally in US equities that has lasted six years, there were some signs of a loss of momentum, with price gains notably weaker relative to the same period in past years.

Markets have also had to adapt to a new Fed chair, Janet Yellen, whose appointment fed much of the speculation seen at the short end of the US Treasury curve. Regardless of these factors, the quarter showed that a supportive value proposition and non-consensus positioning can lead to good performance even in volatile times. Thus, the long-end of the Treasury curve performed well and supported Mena fixed income and equity markets.

Looking ahead, we think the outlook for the global economic cycle is mostly positive. The monetary policy backdrop is accommodative, inflation is low and global growth is firming up. In fixed income, moderate growth and very low inflation make for a conducive environment for a variety of instruments, including emerging-market debt instruments that offer better yields than benchmark developed-market bonds.

The evolution of the situation in China is increasingly looking like it will be an important driver for emerging-market assets in the second quarter (positively or negatively). However, as the first quarter showed, the best performances can result from changing correlations and expectations, which can explain the rally in Indonesian risk assets despite China’s weak quarter. The possibility that the US Treasury curve might continue to flatten will also be an important factor for fixed income globally, as well as emerging-market debt and currencies. The current pronounced steepness in the curve could support such a trend.

Mohieddine Kronfol is the chief investment officer for fixed income and global sukuk at Franklin Templeton Investments Middle East

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