The IMF has doubled its UAE growth forecast for this year but warned that Dubai World's debt problems may yet affect economies in the region.
The economy is expected to expand by 1.3 per cent instead of the IMF's earlier forecast of 0.6 per cent, the Washington-based institution said in its World Economic Outlook released yesterday. The country's economic growth shrank by 0.7 per cent last year, the IMF added.
Painting a more upbeat global outlook than in earlier forecasts, the IMF said the world economy would grow faster than the expected 4.2 per cent this year. The recovery in many advanced economies, however, remained "tepid", with high government debt levels needing to be addressed, it said.
Countries in the MENA region were recovering at a good speed with projected growth of 4.5 per cent, the IMF said.
The pace of recovery in advanced economies and the impact from Dubai World's debt proposals were key risks clouding the economic outlook.
While the economic effects of the Dubai Government-controlled Dubai World's debt restructuring plans had so far been limited, the IMF warned the complete impact of the situation may not be felt for some time.
"In particular, a possible re-pricing of quasi sovereign debt could have a lasting effect on financial systems, corporate sectors, and more generally, economic activity in the area," the fund said.
The conglomerate is still waiting for creditors to approve proposals announced last month on the restructuring of the company and its property unit Nakheel. The plans involve the Dubai Government providing as much as US$9.5 billion (Dh34.89bn) for the company, with creditors extending their maturities by five to eight years. Dubai World offered to repay in full the holders of the Islamic debt issued by Nakheel as the sukuk fall due. It had announced in November that it planned to restructure its debts.
A vulnerable financial sector and weak property markets were holding the economy back, said the IMF, citing the same factors as a drag on Kuwait's growth prospects.
Property-related sectors in the Emirates were expected to contract further, it said.
The slowdown in construction and the tightening of bank credit has led to a contraction in the country's property market. The oversupply of properties is hampering recovery in Dubai's housing market, analysts said.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, Qatar will be the strongest performer in the region this year with GDP growth forecast to reach 18.5 per cent due to further expansion of natural gas production and infrastructure spending by the government.
Saudi Arabia, the Gulf's biggest economy, is forecast to grow by 3.7 per cent this year, with fiscal spending remaining the main driver of expansion.
It follows marginal growth of 0.15 per cent last year.
"Government investment programmes, especially in infrastructure, will continue to boost domestic demand in the near term in many MENA economies," the IMF said.
"These measures should remain in place to help cement the recovery."
Higher energy prices were leading a resurgence in the oil and gas-exporting countries, the IMF said.
Despite assistance, banks in the region had become more cautious about lending after recent episodes of financial sector distress amid sharp corrections in property markets.
"This will likely curb the availability of bank loans and, ultimately, credit growth," it said.
Through their pegs to the US dollar, the monetary policies of Gulf economies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain were appropriately stimulative, the IMF said.
The economic outlook was published prior to the gathering of global policymakers in Washington for the IMF's spring meetings starting Saturday. Among the subjects on the agenda are how to sustain the recovery from the economic crisis and the IMF's recent report on financial stability.
Younis al Khoori, the director general of the Ministry of Finance, will head the UAE delegation, which will meet with Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, to discuss topics including increasing the voting power of Arab countries within the World Bank and how to increase the capital of the World Bank.
tarnold@thenational.ae
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
The five pillars of Islam
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Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE v Ireland
1st ODI, UAE win by 6 wickets
2nd ODI, January 12
3rd ODI, January 14
4th ODI, January 16
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
HOSTS
T20 WORLD CUP
2024: US and West Indies; 2026: India and Sri Lanka; 2028: Australia and New Zealand; 2030: England, Ireland and Scotland
ODI WORLD CUP
2027: South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia; 2031: India and
Bangladesh
CHAMPIONS TROPHY
2025: Pakistan; 2029: India
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Essentials
The flights
Whether you trek after mountain gorillas in Rwanda, Uganda or the Congo, the most convenient international airport is in Rwanda’s capital city, Kigali. There are direct flights from Dubai a couple of days a week with RwandAir. Otherwise, an indirect route is available via Nairobi with Kenya Airways. Flydubai flies to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, via Entebbe in Uganda. Expect to pay from US$350 (Dh1,286) return, including taxes.
The tours
Superb ape-watching tours that take in all three gorilla countries mentioned above are run by Natural World Safaris. In September, the company will be operating a unique Ugandan ape safari guided by well-known primatologist Ben Garrod.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, local operator Kivu Travel can organise pretty much any kind of safari throughout the Virunga National Park and elsewhere in eastern Congo.
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Tales of Yusuf Tadros
Adel Esmat (translated by Mandy McClure)
Hoopoe
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
MATCH INFO
Watford 2 (Sarr 50', Deeney 54' pen)
Manchester United 0
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Indika
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
How to turn your property into a holiday home
- Ensure decoration and styling – and portal photography – quality is high to achieve maximum rates.
- Research equivalent Airbnb homes in your location to ensure competitiveness.
- Post on all relevant platforms to reach the widest audience; whether you let personally or via an agency know your potential guest profile – aiming for the wrong demographic may leave your property empty.
- Factor in costs when working out if holiday letting is beneficial. The annual DCTM fee runs from Dh370 for a one-bedroom flat to Dh1,200. Tourism tax is Dh10-15 per bedroom, per night.
- Check your management company has a physical office, a valid DTCM licence and is licencing your property and paying tourism taxes. For transparency, regularly view your booking calendar.
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
