For four of the biggest US technology companies – Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google parent Alphabet – 2020 was one for the books. During a year when the global pandemic put many companies out of business, these market leaders thrived, raking in profits that sent their stock prices soaring and left them more powerful and valuable than ever. The outlook for next year is a different story.
These formidable giants face risks on several fronts – from mounting antitrust and regulatory issues to high valuations and a volatile economy – all of which threaten to spoil the prospects for a repeat performance in 2021. And not just next year: Governments’ growing concern over the companies’ market power may force changes to their businesses that have much longer-lasting consequences.
First, the numbers. As the foursome greet 2021, they will have a much higher bar to meet to impress investors after their big stock rallies this year. Amazon shares are trading at a forward sales multiple about 30 per cent higher than the five-year average, which could quickly lead to disappointment if its e-commerce or cloud-computing businesses slow.
Apple’s latest line-up of iPhones needs to materially exceed sales expectations to justify a price-to-earnings ratio valuation roughly double its past history. As for Facebook and Alphabet, their valuations are now baking in a robust digital-advertising recovery for next year that is by no means assured.
And if TikTok is able to get beyond the government's threats to ban its app, the social media company – with its vast user base of 100 million Americans – can be a more formidable competitor for corporate ad budgets in 2021.
A large part of the industry’s rally this year came from the so-called safety premium trade, in which portfolio managers shifted funds into technology stocks to avoid the solvency risks found in other traditional sectors such as travel, energy and retail.
Any gains from this allocation shift may quickly dissipate should the economy, once stabilised, start to improve rapidly – a scenario many fund managers expect for the second half of 2021 as vaccines become widely available. Inflows may become outflows if investors decide to buy back into beaten-down economically sensitive stocks with their cheaper valuations.
The biggest threat, though, is more existential. After years of successfully skirting the type of regulatory scrutiny that market rivals, watchdogs and politicians have long said they deserved, the foursome are now the target of governments around the world that say their market dominance hampers competition and harms consumers.
In Europe, government officials are considering passing new rules that prohibit companies from using the power of their platforms to favour their own products. If the legislation, which seems to have broad political support, becomes law, it would hurt profitable business lines, including Amazon’s private-label products, Apple’s Music service and Google’s practice of ranking its offerings higher in search results.
The US Congress may not be far behind. There is bipartisan consensus for several antitrust recommendations contained in a House antitrust report such as lowering the legal standard for regulators to prove mergers are anticompetitive and increasing funding to antitrust agencies. Both reforms would add to oversight and significantly curb the industry’s ability to stifle competition by buying emerging start-ups.
For Google and Facebook, there is also the overhang of serious antitrust lawsuits brought by the Department of Justice, state attorneys general and, in Facebook’s case, the Federal Trade Commission, too.
In the case against Google, government prosecutors want to halt the internet giant’s use of paid exclusionary distribution agreements to make its search engine the default option on mobile devices. They also want Google to provide search results based purely on relevance – not internal business objectives. In suing Facebook, state AGs say the company is so dominant in social media it may need to be broken up. While the court battles may take years to fully resolve, any sudden developments could hurt investor sentiment.
In some ways, the fact that Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google had such a remarkably successful year may prove to be a liability. Governments can clearly see the extent of each company’s market dominance after such impressive financial showings and investors, too, now have embedded much higher expectations. That’s a recipe for a let-down.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
SWEET%20TOOTH
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MEYDAN RESULTS
6.30pm Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh125,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer).
7.05pm Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Galaxy Road, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
7.40pm Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Al Modayar, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh170,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Gundogdu, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner George Villiers, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 (D)1,200m
Winner Lady Parma, Connor Beasley, Satish Seemar
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Zaajer, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
The biog
Favourite book: Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi
Favourite holiday destination: Spain
Favourite film: Bohemian Rhapsody
Favourite place to visit in the UAE: The beach or Satwa
Children: Stepdaughter Tyler 27, daughter Quito 22 and son Dali 19
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
How to invest in gold
Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.
A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.
Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”
Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”
Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”
By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.
You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.
You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.
Fixtures and results:
Wed, Aug 29:
- Malaysia bt Hong Kong by 3 wickets
- Oman bt Nepal by 7 wickets
- UAE bt Singapore by 215 runs
Thu, Aug 30:
- UAE bt Nepal by 78 runs
- Hong Kong bt Singapore by 5 wickets
- Oman bt Malaysia by 2 wickets
Sat, Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong; Oman v Singapore; Malaysia v Nepal
Sun, Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman; Malaysia v UAE; Nepal v Singapore
Tue, Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore; UAE v Oman; Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu, Sep 6: Final
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INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
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CONCRETE COWBOY
Directed by: Ricky Staub
Starring: Idris Elba, Caleb McLaughlin, Jharrel Jerome
3.5/5 stars
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The five pillars of Islam
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mumbai Indians 213/6 (20 ov)
Royal Challengers Bangalore 167/8 (20 ov)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
