The polls are tightening, which was almost inevitable given the extreme partisan polarisation in American politics. But the electoral college map remains clear and looks poised to repeat the party breakdown of 2012. So, it’s going to take a remarkable turnaround – probably requiring a dramatic and largely imponderable event such as an unprecedented “October surprise” or a totally unexpected performance by either party in the presidential debates – to allow Donald Trump to beat Hillary Clinton in November.
What’s most fascinating is not the likely outcome, which seems set to deliver the White House to Mrs Clinton. Far more interesting, and troubling, is what awaits her after inauguration.
The probable Clinton presidency is already in the crosshairs being set up by Republicans across the board. If elected, she is likely to become the target of massive and unending accusations, investigations, official inquiries, committees, special prosecutors and, if possible, even an impeachment. Signs are everywhere, unmistakable and alarming that Republicans are openly building the infrastructure for the most paralysing gridlock in recent American history.
For that, they need only retain control of the House of Representatives, and they are at least as likely to do so as Mrs Clinton is to become president.
Democrats need the same kind of political miracle to take control of the House as it would take for Mr Trump to win the presidency. Neither is on the cards.
The bigger question is the Senate, which is poised on a razor’s edge. Assuming Mrs Clinton becomes president, Democrats would need four new Senate seats for a functional majority with her vice president, Tim Kaine, serving as tiebreaker, or five for an outright majority.
Odds for both parties in the Senate now appear about 50-50. A Democratic Senate majority would allow Mrs Clinton to at least secure her cabinet and other senior appointments, particularly to the Supreme Court, without Republican obstruction.
But if Republicans retain control of the Senate, she can look forward to nasty fights on virtually everything she tries to do, with the possible exception of basic expenditure or job-creation programmes. Much beyond that will be utterly paralysed, including, if the Republican lawmakers can manage it, foreign as well as domestic policy.
If Democrats get four new Senate seats, Mrs Clinton could secure her appointments and be practically safe from conviction in the Senate if whe were impeached by the House (the lust, though hardly the grounds, for which is already clear). But her legislative agenda would be all but dead in the water.
For lack of better ideas, Republicans have long-cultivated being an obstructionist party. Their bitterness about the massive 2008 loss to Barack Obama sharpened this inclination to a keen edge. They are familiar and comfortable with being an obstructionist force in government, saying no to virtually everything, and practising the dark art of creating gridlock and rationalising its virtues.
Mr Obama came into office as a constitutional scholar with an instinctive mistrust of arbitrary executive authority and a strong inclination to build compromise and consensus. But his two terms increasingly turned him into one of the most expansive practitioners of executive orders in the country’s history, largely because he found that without using presidential authority to bypass a Republican Congress, he simply couldn’t get much done.
So while Republicans refined their techniques of obstructionism over the past eight years, the prospect of Mrs Clinton in the White House is already turning many minds towards more serious forms of attack.
Leading the prep work is house oversight committee chairman Jason Chaffetz of Utah, who is pursuing a relentless campaign regarding Mrs Clinton’s emails and devices used during her tenure as secretary of state. To bolster his position to harass her now and into the future, he is also calling on Mr Trump to release his tax returns.
One can hardly imagine a Clinton presidency not haunted by endless investigations based on ancient, more recent and yet-to- be discovered alleged scandals.
From ancient allegations concerning Vince Foster, Travelgate and Whitewater to newer ones about Benghazi and her emails, and on a raft of new accusations as yet unarticulated, the attack will surely be instantaneous and relentless.
Mrs Clinton and her husband Bill have been under intense scrutiny for decades, and have made many mistakes, errors of judgment and worse, providing an endless series of targets, some real but most imaginary, for her would-be persecutors.
So, while Mrs Clinton will probably win, it’s almost certain that her presidency will be among the most troubled in history and that she will be relentlessly pursued by Republicans whose only remaining defence is a vicious and relentless attack. They are lining up, cleaning and aiming their ample cannon at her already.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
On Twitter: @ibishblog
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Sonchiriya
Director: Abhishek Chaubey
Producer: RSVP Movies, Azure Entertainment
Cast: Sushant Singh Rajput, Manoj Bajpayee, Ashutosh Rana, Bhumi Pednekar, Ranvir Shorey
Rating: 3/5
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Step by step
2070km to run
38 days
273,600 calories consumed
28kg of fruit
40kg of vegetables
45 pairs of running shoes
1 yoga matt
1 oxygen chamber
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dunki
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RESULTS
Catchweight 82kg
Piotr Kuberski (POL) beat Ahmed Saeb (IRQ) by decision.
Women’s bantamweight
Corinne Laframboise (CAN) beat Cornelia Holm (SWE) by unanimous decision.
Welterweight
Omar Hussein (PAL) beat Vitalii Stoian (UKR) by unanimous decision.
Welterweight
Josh Togo (LEB) beat Ali Dyusenov (UZB) by unanimous decision.
Flyweight
Isaac Pimentel (BRA) beat Delfin Nawen (PHI) TKO round-3.
Catchweight 80kg
Seb Eubank (GBR) beat Emad Hanbali (SYR) KO round 1.
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (UAE) beat Ramadan Noaman (EGY) TKO round 2.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) beat Reydon Romero (PHI) submission 1.
Welterweight
Juho Valamaa (FIN) beat Ahmed Labban (LEB) by unanimous decision.
Featherweight
Elias Boudegzdame (ALG) beat Austin Arnett (USA) by unanimous decision.
Super heavyweight
Maciej Sosnowski (POL) beat Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) by submission round 1.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The six points:
1. Ministers should be in the field, instead of always at conferences
2. Foreign diplomacy must be left to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation
3. Emiratisation is a top priority that will have a renewed push behind it
4. The UAE's economy must continue to thrive and grow
5. Complaints from the public must be addressed, not avoided
6. Have hope for the future, what is yet to come is bigger and better than before
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan
Directed by: RS Prasanna
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Bhumi Pednekar
'Spies in Disguise'
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Stars: Will Smith, Tom Holland, Karen Gillan and Roshida Jones
Rating: 4 out of 5 stars
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.
The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
Power: 360bhp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh282,870
On sale: now
