Only shielding the elderly and vulnerable from coronavirus could see 100,000 deaths this year, a leading expert has warned.
Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, says he is skeptical that a scenario where the younger population resumed a normal life would be a "viable strategy".
It comes as the UK's Prime Minister Boris Johnson returned to work on Monday and warned the lockdown would not be lifted anytime soon.
The UK's month-long lockdown has been extended until May 7 and the government is due to announcement its plans for easing it in the coming days.
Prof Ferguson has been one of the leading scientists advising the government.
He has said easing the lockdown would require "a very high level" of effective protection for the vulnerable and elderly population, who are also the "least able to really be truly isolated".
"The most vulnerable people are also the people who most need care and have most interaction with the health system and are least able to really be truly isolated," he told news outlet UnHerd.
"And if you achieve just 80 per cent shielding, 80 per cent reduction in infection risk in those groups, we'd still project you get well over 100,000 deaths later this year through that sort of strategy."
Earlier, Prof Ferguson had warned the pandemic could kill 250,000 people if the government did not enforce social distancing.
He has advised that everyday life "cannot go completely back to normal" and that social distancing would need to remain until a vaccine is developed.
Last Thursday the UK began clinical trials on testing vaccines but it is not expected one will be available until next year.
"There will be a trade-off between the extent to which you relax measures and tolerate a level of transmission, and, therefore, mortality and health system demand, versus keeping case numbers as low as you can, which will probably require social distancing longer term," Prof Ferguson added.
On Monday, Mr Johnson warned that if measures were eased too early and gave way to a second wave it would be an "economic disaster".
"I understand your impatience, I share your anxiety and I know that without our private sector without the drive and commitment of the wealth creators of this country there will be no economy to speak of," he told the nation.
"There will be no cash to pay for our public services, no way of funding our NHS and yes I can see the long term consequences of lock down as clearly as anyone and yet we must also recognise the risk of a second spike, the risk of losing control of that virus because that would mean not only a new wave of death and disease but also an economic disaster.
"We would be forced once again to slam on the brakes across the whole country and the whole economy and reimpose restrictions in such a way as to do more and lasting damage and so I know it is tough and I want to get this economy moving as fast as I can but I refuse to throw away all the effort and the sacrifice of the British people and to risk a second major outbreak and huge loss of life and the overwhelming of the NHS."
Mr Johnson said a decision on the lifting of the lockdown will depend on scientific advice.
"We simply cannot spell out now how fast or slow or even when those changes will be made," he added
"Though clearly the government will be saying much more about this in the coming days."
It is exactly one month since Mr Johnson went into isolation after contracting a severe case of Covid-19, which put him in intensive care and left the UK without its leader as the country entered the peak of the outbreak.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
THE SPECS
2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE
Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors
Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode
Power: 121hp
Torque: 142Nm
Price: Dh95,900
SPECS
While you're here
Ed Husain: The far left is trying to hijack Muslim minds in the West
Sulaiman Hakemy: Why it is very important to lose elections
Rashmee Roshan Lall: US race relations in three words
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Pathaan
Three ways to get a gratitude glow
By committing to at least one of these daily, you can bring more gratitude into your life, says Ong.
- During your morning skincare routine, name five things you are thankful for about yourself.
- As you finish your skincare routine, look yourself in the eye and speak an affirmation, such as: “I am grateful for every part of me, including my ability to take care of my skin.”
- In the evening, take some deep breaths, notice how your skin feels, and listen for what your skin is grateful for.
On Women's Day
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
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While you're here
Chitrabhanu Kadalayil: Singapore election is more than just a family feud over LKY's legacy
Sholto Byrnes: Robert Mugabe and Lee Kuan Yew: two leaders with very different legacies
Dr Vivian Balakrishnan: UAE and Singapore can be partners for a world in transition
Nick March: Singapore and UAE are on the move – in airport development
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
While you're here
Shaikha Salem Al Dhaheri: 'I want my sons' generation to learn what my father taught me'
Nick Wesbter: What is aflaj – the ancient desert irrigation system used in Al Ain?
Anna Zacharias: Al Ain Palace Museum hosts classes in lost Emirati arts
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
Ramy%3A%20Season%203%2C%20Episode%201
'Texas Chainsaw Massacre'
Rating: 1 out of 4
Running time: 81 minutes
Director: David Blue Garcia
Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham
STAR%20WARS%20JEDI%3A%20SURVIVOR
Specs
Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km
Naga
The flights: South African Airways flies from Dubai International Airport with a stop in Johannesburg, with prices starting from around Dh4,000 return. Emirates can get you there with a stop in Lusaka from around Dh4,600 return.
The details: Visas are available for 247 Zambian kwacha or US$20 (Dh73) per person on arrival at Livingstone Airport. Single entry into Victoria Falls for international visitors costs 371 kwacha or $30 (Dh110). Microlight flights are available through Batoka Sky, with 15-minute flights costing 2,265 kwacha (Dh680).
Accommodation: The Royal Livingstone Victoria Falls Hotel by Anantara is an ideal place to stay, within walking distance of the falls and right on the Zambezi River. Rooms here start from 6,635 kwacha (Dh2,398) per night, including breakfast, taxes and Wi-Fi. Water arrivals cost from 587 kwacha (Dh212) per person.
NYBL PROFILE
Company name: Nybl
Date started: November 2018
Founder: Noor Alnahhas, Michael LeTan, Hafsa Yazdni, Sufyaan Abdul Haseeb, Waleed Rifaat, Mohammed Shono
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software Technology / Artificial Intelligence
Initial investment: $500,000
Funding round: Series B (raising $5m)
Partners/Incubators: Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 4, Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 6, AI Venture Labs Cohort 1, Microsoft Scale-up
From Conquest to Deportation
Jeronim Perovic, Hurst
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Results
1. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) 1hr 32mins 03.897sec
2. Max Verstappen (Red Bull-Honda) at 0.745s
3. Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) 37.383s
4. Lando Norris (McLaren) 46.466s
5.Sergio Perez (Red Bull-Honda) 52.047s
6. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 59.090s
7. Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren) 1:06.004
8. Carlos Sainz Jr (Ferrari) 1:07.100
9. Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri-Honda) 1:25.692
10. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin-Mercedes) 1:26.713,
More on animal trafficking
EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Fanar Haddad: The Iranian response will be gradual
Richard Olson: Why Afghanistan will be very wary
While you're here
Gavin Esler: Will 2021 be Boris Johnson's worst year?
Thomas Harding: US relations with Europe could change
Brodie Owen: How England’s new lockdown rules work
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Mina Al-Oraibi: Suleimani death casts a long shadow over decade ahead
Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Hezbollah bids to control Lebanon’s financial system
National Editorial: Hezbollah's murky dealings in Iraq have been unveiled
Haircare resolutions 2021
From Beirut and Amman to London and now Dubai, hairstylist George Massoud has seen the same mistakes made by customers all over the world. In the chair or at-home hair care, here are the resolutions he wishes his customers would make for the year ahead.
1. 'I will seek consultation from professionals'
You may know what you want, but are you sure it’s going to suit you? Haircare professionals can tell you what will work best with your skin tone, hair texture and lifestyle.
2. 'I will tell my hairdresser when I’m not happy'
Massoud says it’s better to offer constructive criticism to work on in the future. Your hairdresser will learn, and you may discover how to communicate exactly what you want more effectively the next time.
3. ‘I will treat my hair better out of the chair’
Damage control is a big part of most hairstylists’ work right now, but it can be avoided. Steer clear of over-colouring at home, try and pursue one hair brand at a time and never, ever use a straightener on still drying hair, pleads Massoud.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test Thursday-Monday at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
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Racecard
6pm: The Pointe - Conditions (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m
6.35pm: Palm West Beach - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (T) 1,800m
7.10pm: The View at the Palm - Handicap (TB) Dh85,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.45pm: Nakeel Graduate Stakes - Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
8.20pm: Club Vista Mare - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,900m
8.55pm: The Palm Fountain - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m
9.30pm: The Palm Tower - Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m
The%20Mandalorian%20season%203%20episode%201
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
The%20US%20Congress%2C%20explained
While you're here
Joyce Karam: Chaotic first debate unlikely to swing undecideds
Hussein Ibish: Donald Trump's 3-step plan to cling to power
Sulaiman Hakemy: Make America lose again
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
- Life in the royal residences with Sheikha Osha bint Nahayan
- Sheikha Mahra and Sheikha Sabha recall their time spent in Al Hosn
- A place where problems were solved
- How the fort's rise tracked Abu Dhabi's development
- Meet Frauke Heard-Bey - the fort's historian for 30 years
- In Pictures: Story of a fort
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
THE%C2%A0SPECS
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
While you're here
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
